Shadows Set Review Pt. 2 and Post-Banning Theorycrafting

We are in countdown mode. T-minus one week, and Shadows Over Innistrad releases upon us, bringing with it an Eldrazi banning and good tidings for all boys and girls. The combination of Eldrazi’s removal (good riddance) and the influx of (possible) new cards will undoubtedly shake up Modern for better or for worse, and my brain has been spinning trying to anticipate all the possible permutations the metagame might take.

Asylum-Visitor-Shadows-over-Innistrad-Art

Today, we’ll put a preliminary stamp on Shadows Over Innistrad; grading the set as an exercise in evaluative process. Primarily, though, we’ll be looking forward a week ahead, theorycrafting some ban decisions and anticipating what the format will look like with Eldrazi gone and Shadows here. Let’s get started!

Shadows Over Innistrad Spoilers Part Two

Last week, we took a hard look at the first half of the spoiled set, analyzing for potential Modern sleepers and staples. I anticipated this week’s article to be exclusively Spoilers Pt. 2, but as often happens the back half of the New Set, spoilers were pretty lackluster for anyone not interested in Limited. This should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with Loam Dryadpreview season; Wizards often releases 80% or more of the flashy mythics/rares early, leaving the last week/two weeks of to contain almost exclusively commons/uncommons and Limited filler. Historically, Modern aficionados have been able to find gems in this muck; Rending Volley, Become Immense, etc. This time around, no such luck. Why?

Wizards has taken a few steps recently in set design that have inspired some negative repercussions for Modern. Gone are the days of Return to Ravnica‘s hyper-powerful, multicolor spells, replaced almost entirely with slow, underpowered, overcosted, single-color options. Instead of Essence Scatter, we get . Instead of Azorius Charm, we have . What this means for Modern is clear; it sucks! Pair this with their design philosophy that moves away from One CMC “Mana Elves” and we get where we once had Birds of Paradise.

Murderous CompulsionAs a relatively seasoned Magic player that has experienced such wonders as Jace, the Mind Sculptor in Standard, Snapcaster Mage flashing back Vapor Snag, and Thoughtseize removing Llanowar Elves, it’s hard to look upon these changing times with anything resembling positivity. I got to play with Abrupt Decay, and now they are giving me ? A man can only take too much before his own s kick in.

This is all to say that the back half of Shadows Over Innistrad spoilers has absolutely nothing to offer. Keep walking, nothing to see here. This leaves us with the following set of cards that I anticipate “could” see play in Modern, and are therefore worth keeping an eye on.

Likely

Possible

Niche

To clarify, this is an inclusive list of all the cards in Shadows I think could possibly see play of any level in Modern. is not a good Magic card for Modern, but could show up in a Vampires deck so I’m including it here. The same with : I don’t expect her to see play, but she could pop up in some Mardu lists so I’m including her as well. Long-term (read: until the next set comes out) I would be surprised if more than two cards from the set Asylum Visitorsee sustained play, and downright shocked if any of the non-Likely options show up in more than one archetype.

My pick for best card in the set goes to , as its synergy with Modern as a format and black as a color gives it the highest possibly of multi-archetype play. The strongest individual card is , which could do for Humans what Master of the Pearl Trident did for Merfolk. As a whole, I’m grading the set a C, as the set is lacking in terms of both staple singles and role-playing sideboard cards. My biggest question marks are and Arlinn Kord, I could see that I’m underestimating them, and a month from now we could see either of these cards in more than one archetype. I feel confident in my opinion that they show promise, but ultimately fall a bit short of the standard for Modern.

Shadows Over Innistrad Grade: C

Looking Ahead

The rest of this article will begin to look ahead to what a possible Modern landscape would look like with Eldrazi out of the picture. The relative lack of influence from Shadows Over Innistrad will make this process easier, as I don’t anticipate to raise Black’s stock in Modern a significant amount to tip any scales. So, we’ll approach this in two parts; Modern with Eldrazi completely removed, and Modern will Eldrazi present, but nerfed. First, Context!

1 Eldrazi 34.9%
2 Affinity 8.9%
3 Abzan Company 5.8%
4 Burn 3.8%
5 Infect 3.8%
6 Living End 3.2%
7 UW Control 3%
8 Merfolk 2.9%
9 Jund 2.9%
10 RG Tron 2.1%

I highly suggest brushing up on the Grand Prix Weekend Wrap-Up before moving on, as most of our inferences will be based primarily on that data. Check out Sheridan’s article detailing the post-banning, pre-Pro Tour metagame as well. Post banning, but before the Pro Tour, the metagame looked similar to the above chart (removing Eldrazi of course) in almost all areas, but with a few key differences. Tron performed much better than we see above, which points clearly to Eldrazi (or Eldrazi’s effect on the metagame) being unfavorable for Tron. Picking up on key bits like this that can be easy to overlook is essential if we want to get a step ahead. Eldrazi has been top dog pretty much every week since the Pro Tour, with a couple clear challengers emerging over the following weekends to fight for Second-Best. Abzan Company and Living End experienced the best results (after Eldrazi) on GP Weekend, while Affinity took third and Burn/Infect were almost entirely absent.

We have to be careful to evaluate every piece of information with a grain of salt, it is essential to realize that the metagame we see now is based almost entirely on the effect Eldrazi has had on the landscape more so than individual archetype strengths/weaknesses. Archetypes that stand no chance against Eldrazi (control, Tron, Scapeshift) have largely disappeared in Eldrazi’s wake but will undoubtedbly return when Eldrazi is banned. Still, the best place to start is Level 0, the “best decks” left standing after Eldrazi is banned.

Abzan Company

collected companyCollected Company decks came in many flavors following its release, primarily Elves and Melira/Anafenza Combo. Elves experienced a gradual decline into obscurity as they could not race other aggressive decks consistently when its lords had been dealt with. Abzan Company, on the other hand, contained multiple life-gain elements to buy time to combo properly. While it can often experience awkward, disjointed hands, Abzan Company as an archetype interestingly contains a surprising amount of power for a deck that packs individually embarrassing cards like Melira, Sylvok Outcast and Viscera Seer. Abzan Company has enjoyed relatively modest success against Eldrazi, as its lifegain elements work to stunt Eldrazi’s unfair aggro and itss combo elements force Eldrazi to play Abzan’s game.

Living End

Benefiting from the lack of control in Modern, Living End has been able to turn-three/turn-four opponents with impunity. As Eldrazi players have begun to move away from Relic of Progenitus, we’ve begun to see Living End’s stock rise, and we can just as easily expect it to fall once players begin to consider the archetype in their sideboards. Living End has shown a weakness to dedicated hate, and I would expect that to continue in the future. Should Living End become a problem, I imagine it won’t remain top-tier for long.

Affinity

Stony SilenceWith Eldrazi banned, Affinity regains its title as Linear Aggressive King. Depending on who you ask, this can be positive or negative, but we’ve  seen Affinity occupy the same relative position in Modern for a while now, and we have enough evidence to show it can be a format powerhouse if nobody prepares for it. That said, the tools also exist to keep it from dominating (read: the way things should be!). I fully anticipate a return to top-tier for Affinity, but I highly doubt it will even come close to dominating in the same style as Eldrazi. Without Eldrazi to worry about, other archetypes can return to dedicating 3-4 sideboard slots to fight Affinity, and we’ll return to the relative comfort of getting squashed by Affinity Game 1 and then dominating post-board like usual.

Metagame odds and ends

Infect and Burn almost completely fell off the map at Grand Prix Weekend, but I anticipate a full return once Eldrazi is banned. Not only are both of these archetypes proven Modern powerhouses, they have both benefitted greatly from the reduced Lightning Bolts in the format. Depending on the market share post ban we could see a reduced number of viable archetypes compared to the Splinter Twin era, which could have a negative benefit on these archetypes. When Splinter Twin was legal it was common to see 15-20 viable archetypes on any given weekend, which made Twindevoting sideboard slots to fight specific archetypes difficult. When players can’t afford to play Leyline of Sanctity or Melira, Sylvok Outcast in their boards for fear of losing too much percentage in other matchups you begin to see archetypes like these overperform. With Eldrazi banned we can imagine a return to the Splinter Twin metagame but without Splinter Twin. Will this cause a “flood” of different archetypes to run wild, or will a few archetypes grab up all the market share into a new Rock/Paper/Scissors metagame? The answer to this question will influence archetypes like Burn and Infect which stand to benefit from a diverse “do what you want” metagame.

The other looming question mark is Tron’s place in the new metagame. Tron stood to benefit greatly from Twin’s banning, but it proved it couldn’t handle Eldrazi effectively. With Eldrazi gone soon (and Twin still gone), could Tron rise from the ashes to take a shot at the throne? It boasts a strong Abzan Company matchup, and can be tuned to fight Affinity and Burn as well. Infect is problematic, but again, depending on the market share, Tron could afford to devote multiple sideboard slots to fight that matchup. Tron’s insecure future is one of the most interesting questions I’ve been pondering as I anticipate an Eldrazi-less Modern.

Gone, but Not Forgotten

The other (less likely) April 4th scenario involves an Eldrazi nerf, but not total ban. Most likely this will involve the banning of Eldrazi Temple, and the Eldrazi shell remains, still powerful but not dominating. There’s been a significant debate about which broken land will be banned, be it Eldrazi Temple or Eye of Ugin. Personally, if I were Wizards I would err on the side of the non-legendary Land, but I imagine banning either would accomplish a similar effect. Whether the Eldrazi deck is still viable with Eldrazi Temple gone is outside the scope of this article, I’m just interested in theorycrafting what the future will look like should Eldrazi still be around in some fashion, not whether that is likely to happen or not. I definitely consider it less likely, which is why this section is smaller (and second).

Urza's TowerThe most important repercussion of Eldrazi’s continued presence in the metagame is the enduring repression of archetypes with unfavorable matchups, specifically Tron and control. While a nerfed Eldrazi archetype might be slow enough that a poor matchup for Tron suddenly becomes strong, I will continue with the assumption that Eldrazi keeps Tron down, so the resulting metagame will look much different as a result. With Eldrazi slower, other linear strategies like Affinity, Burn, and Infect become contextually stronger as a result, and we could see a landscape where one of these three becomes the new Public Enemy #1. This could result in differing cascading effects, and it is important to not get too far ahead of ourselves, so I won’t explore the varying effects each possible King could have.

What is more interesting to me is how Abzan Company will stand up to dedicated hate, as I imagine that strategy becomes the next “best deck” with Eldrazi nerfed. It boasts strong matchups against the Big Three (Affinity/Burn/Infect) and can be tooled to beat almost anything. With Eldrazi continuing to keep Tron down, Abzan Company merely has to contend with faster combo and attrition style decks like Jund and Control (which I anticipate returns as well). Graveyard hate is strong against Abzan Company, as it shuts down both the combo and multiple latent synergies (Kitchen Finks/Scavenging Ooze). Abzan Company has shown it can play the fair game as well, however, and the Gavony Township backup plan is still as strong as ever.

Conclusion

The questions that Eldrazi’s looming banning sponsors are complex and not easily answered, which naturally makes them good questions worth discussing. While we wait for Wizards to make the first move, all we can do is muse, and doing so will put us a step ahead once we enter our Brave New World. Plus, never pass up an opportunity to muse! Let me know in the comments what you thought of my process, and what changes you think will happen to the metagame with Eldrazi’s banning. Will the deck disappear, or will its shell continue to linger in some fashion? Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you next week.

Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
Twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
Twitter.com/7he4rchitect

 

Trevor started playing Magic in 2011. He plays primarily online and studies Architecture at UNCC. Recent paper Magic accomplishments include a 2015 Regional PTQ win qualifying for Pro Tour: Magic Origins and a Day Two performance at GP Charlotte. He also streams weekdays at twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming! Follow him at twitter.com/7he4rchitect and architectgaming.wordpress.com!

Deny Existence
Gone Missing
Loam Dryad
Murderous Compulsion
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Asylum Visitor
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1_declaration
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1_nahiri
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Asylum Visitor
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Asylum Visitor

18 thoughts on “Shadows Set Review Pt. 2 and Post-Banning Theorycrafting

  1. I’m 100% with you on Thalia’s Lieutenant being very strong. I’m thinking of jamming it and Champion of the Parish into Soul Sisters (where the creatures were mostly Human anyway), and perhaps adding some token-producers such as Gather the Townsfolk. This basically gives you a White Weenie Plan A with a Lifegain Combo Plan B.

    I like Thing in the Ice in control decks (including Grixis) – its transition from defense to wincon is pretty good value for that sort of deck, and I don’t think you’re all that mad if it gets Pathed (since it can’t be Bolted).

    On the subject of the post-Eldrazi world, I think Affinity is the clear “deck to beat” – Abzan has questionable matchups against BGx and Tron (particularly the latter), and the shares for those will rise enough to suppress it. Living End, as you mentioned, dies to graveyard hate and control decks, which we will also see more of. Given the tools available to stymie it, I also don’t expect much to be done with regards to future bannings, as it’s hard to envision a scenario in which it’s over 10% of the meta before being beaten back by waves of hate.

      1. Abzan Cocos matchup is actually pretty good vs GBx, my experience is about 55-60% win, since you can actually grind really well as a backup plan.

        The Tron matchup, on the other hand, is awful – probably 25-30%. Other sub 50% matchups are Elves and RUG scapeshift. Other fast combo decks, like Grishoalbrand and Ad Nauseam are dicey, but your sb helps a lot.

        1. Is that still the case with the advent of Kalitas? I’ve seen Abzan Company curl up and die when that card hits the board. And these days there are 1-2 Damnation floating around in the main, in addition to the Scavenging Oozes that were always there. I think Abzan Company may have been favored in a pre-OGW meta, but I don’t think that is the case right now.

          1. Well I have to say first-off that I haven’t played a lot vs GBx since the Eldrazi take over, but that’s because I haven’t seen it played much by others.

            Kalitas is definitely one of their best cards in the matchup (probably the best). Like scooze or Olivia (but even moreso), if they can land him before you can combo or pull aways ahead and you have no answer to him, yes he takes over. But they still have to hit those conditions first. Damnations are less crippling, but can still be a major pain. Getting them together probably equals a win for GBx. But just because Kalitas can cause pseudo-blowouts doesn’t make the matchup bad – it just means you have to have an answer for him if you haven’t killed them/almost killed them before he hits the table.

            The other thing to keep in mind is that most Abzan coco lists are currently tuned to beat Eldrazi and affinity, which means being built to be faster rather than resilient. That means giving up some percentage vs the less-played, slower decks like GBx or UW control. If GBx rises back to the top post-Eldrazi, Coco builds will adjust and go back to being more resilient.

    1. Roland,

      I agree with all your points, the more I look at Thalia’s Lieutenant in Humans the more I’m impressed. Champion of the Parish is definitely the best as it’s a one drop, but getting to anthem our team for just one more mana is absolutely huge, Thalia’s Lieutenant is a definite game-changer.

      Thing in the Ice is interesting and is a card I will be looking forward to testing out once the set releases! Let me know if you get any games in with it!

  2. I agree about Asylum Visitor looking promising, but I’m a little surprised you don’t think Relentless Dead has any shot at all. I mean sure, it’s vulnerable to graveyard hate, but weaker cards than RD have been vulnerable to graveyard hate and still seen play. Heck, I’d be considering it even if it didn’t have its last ability at all, or if the last ability could only hit additional RDs. I think it’s got a solid chassis worth taking a look at; the fact that it can recur a Tidehollow Sculler or Fleshbag Marauder when it dies is just gravy. I think it should at least make your “Niche” list.

    1. I definately agree and was going to say the same thing but you beat me to it. 🙂

      If for no other reason, I think it’ll see some fringe play in a zombies shell that undoubtedly many people will try (myself included), with the argument that all the deck needed was a good two drop to be ported from standard to modern.

      1. I’m not even thinking of a “zombies deck”. Even without a single other zombie in your deck, he’s a value engine, and having even a single other low-cost zombie in your deck makes him even better. I want to put him next to Kalitas, I want to put him in a deck with a Madness splash, I want to put him in a deck with Tidehollow Sculler… Maybe all at once.

        Don’t think “zombie deck”. Think “deck that could use a self-recurring 2-drop in black”.

    2. Jacob,

      My issues with Relentless Dead mainly come down to how often we’re taking advantage of its ability. In a Zombie aggro deck looking to curve out, do you think we’ll have the extra B up often enough to get value out of it? If it returned to the battlefield a la Gravecrawler it would be worth it, but as it is I’m not excited to pay a B to “draw” a BB 2/2 that I will be then replaying on a later turn. Dropping this guy on Turn 3 or 4 doesn’t really interest me, it’s “just” a 2/2 menace for 2.

      The other ability seems even more difficult to activate, sure, when topdecking we get to bring back Geralf’s Messenger or something if they Bolt our guy. I just don’t see us using that ability naturally over the course of the game unless we’re leaving up mana consistently, or using the ability to “sneak” through damage on our turn past a blocker (de-incentivizing blocking) which probably won’t be happening in the first place as he has menace.

      Sounds a little like rambling, I’m just thinking through when this ability would come up naturally in a game and while synergistic, it seems like we have to jump through hoops to get it to work.

  3. I’d be betting on prized amalgam seeing play in dredge decks, possibly making them competitive. Card looks very strong. I like relentless dead too, but I’m not sure zombies as a midrange attrition deck can do anything bgx decks don’t already do better. Arlinn kord is not going to see serious play – people will try it, but so far the list of planeswalker that see modern play thanks to buffing creatures is – zero. And the number that see play that die immediately to a bolt? Incidentally also zero. It could surprise us, but all the evidence points to a flop does it not?

  4. Darcy Hartwick, you’re forgetting about Liliana of the Veil in your PW in Modern analysis. She also enters with 3 loyalty counters, and is by far the best ‘walker in the format. Arlinn’s CMC 4 in comparison is actually a boon in this regard: she also dodges Abrupt Decay, unlike LotV. I’m very much on Team Kord in Modern. Her +1 may require a creature to gain maximum benefit, but I don’t think the format will have sped up to the point that a resolved Arlinn cannot win you the game on her own. Unlike any other walker except Sorin, Solemn Visitor, she is able to produce an army and power it up (while also giving us lightning bolt 5+). Also like SSV, whose +1 requires a board presence in order to be useful, Arlinn will very likely see Modern play, though perhaps not in Jund. I think RUG decks will make great use of her, as it’s one more Queen to protect in a tempo shell with significant added utility for a variety of board states.

    1. no. Liliana comes in and either gets out of bolt range immediately (with a pretty relevant ability at that) or does something valuable before dying to the bolt (ie generating a 2-for-1).

      Arlinn Kord comes in and either makes a wolf and gets bolted, or pumps a creature and doesnt get bolted (and cant use her only good ability either until you do make that wolf). Pumping creatures is not very good as there are too many situations where it means nothing. Maybe you don’t have a dude. Maybe it can’t attack even if its pumped. Maybe they kill it in response. Maybe they chump with a souls token. Sometimes all your liliana does is eats a souls token or half a kitchen finks, but that’s still way more reliable than kords + ability. And abrupt decay is barely played with twin gone so it is not the factor it used to be in terms of mana costs.

      The only thing arlinn kord has in common with liliana of the veil is that they are both planeswalkers.

    1. I didn’t think long on this card, primarily because there aren’t many existing (or fringe) B/W decks that are interested in this type of effect. Token decks are more worried about discard than problematic permanents (other than hard hitting creatures like Goyf) and for that they already have Path/Dismember. Were we suddenly in a format where Jeskai Ascendancy/Pyromancer’s Ascension/Blood Moon/Ensnaring Bridge were all over the place than possibly, it just doesn’t seem that great of a card to begin with.

      Add in that most B/W lists often have access to G for Abrupt Decay/Maelstrom Pulse (which are both much stronger cards) and the archetypes that would be interested in this type of effect assuming that it is good enough is very slim. So, not “no chance”, but probably low chance.

    1. I would play Vexing Devil over this, and Vexing Devil is bad. Past Guide/Swiftspear/and 2+ Grim Lavamancer are we really looking for more one drops? If Zoo wanted more they would just go back to Wild Nacatl, I guess we could imagine a metagame where we need a bunch of one drops but want to stay mono-color for damage purposes, but in that fictional metagame if we’re starting to look at cards like this why aren’t we just playing affinity? Memnite is probably just better…

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